India/Pakistan: a relationship of challenges or prospect for change?

Executive Summary

India Pakistan relations since last it was officially announced that Foreign Secretaries would hold talks has seen a stagnation where any move forward has been cogged by empty promises, habitual blame games and a terrorist attack in early January on an Indian military base in Pathankot on 2^nd January 2016. The dilly dallying from both sides signals that either country is not ready to inch in towards a more stable relationship. Added to that a newly released report on public text books in Pakistan called “Teaching intolerance in Pakistan: Religious bias in public school textbooks” supported by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom has shown that their contents will make it impossible for Pakistan to cooperate with India while the rise of right wing Hindu nationalistic forces in India eschew no peaceful relation with Pakistan. In this backdrop the paper looks at where the relationship stands and recommends policy as an immediate remedy.

Introduction

Since the last report by the author on India Pakistan relations and the positive vibe it held for an upcoming Foreign Secretary talks, beginning of 2016 has proved more turbulent than ever. Not only the talks have become indefinite, India has seen a major attack on one of its military bases in Pathankot near the India Pakistan border.  The relations between the two countries are at all-time low again. The internal situation within both countries are not conducive either whereby Pakistan has been plagued by suicide attacks while rise of right wing forces in India is threatening its democratic credibility. Therefore, what is the future of relations of these two countries? This paper will look at the factors that have stalled the process and if there can be any move forward.

India’s Foreign Policy and Pakistan

This happens to be a major factor that determines how the relationship is turning out. Even with Narendra Modi and his grand vision for a stable neighbourhood, one is unsure what exactly his policy is towards Pakistan. This is because traditionally India has lacked a holistic foreign policy framework for Pakistan. It has been a piece meal approach or a “trial and error method” that has shaped the narrative. Narendra Modi’s unannounced visit to Pakistan in December 2015 garnered a lot of hype about thawing of relations but all that seem to have crashed post January 2016 attack by Pakistan supported militants on an Indian army base in Pathankot. India has blamed the attack on the Jaish E Mohammad- an outfit known to be supported by Pakistani establishment. This led to another deferment of the long awaited Foreign Secretary talks. The recent visit of the joint investigation team from Pakistan on Pathankot attack has fuelled more tension whereby the Pakistani team has declared the attack to be a ploy by India to defame Pakistan (Subramanian, 2016). Pakistan has also not allowed the Indian investigation agency to visit either. However, this was a predictable posturing by Pakistan and should not come as a surprise. The point is what should India do in face of such insincere approach?

That apart, the arrest of a retired Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav in March this year by Pakistani authorities for allegedly supporting the Baloch Nationalist movement has stirred a hornets’ nest and further affected relations between the two countries. India’s calculated formal statement on this incident has led Pakistan to interpret this as a tacit acceptance by India and is being further capitalised to ratchet up more anti-India stance in the country and elsewhere. In face of this diplomatic tussle India is yet to formulate a robust policy that would deal with Pakistan in a more nuanced manner than a direct aggressive posturing. Indian Foreign Secretary’s recent speech at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace rather summarises the lacking in Indian Foreign Policy towards Pakistan where he said that “India was determined to keep the focus firmly on the central issue of terrorism” (Foreign Secretary Speech, 2016). This emphasis on centrality of terrorism is what is problematic because India has been raising this issue for ever but Pakistan is yet to pay heed. On the other, terrorism related activities in India with support from Pakistan have been all time low especially since November 2008 Mumbai attacks. Then Indian Prime Minister Modi going out of his way to press the world community to chide Pakistan and to develop a convention on the problem was a poor move because the repercussions hold more loss for India. The focus on terrorism implies isolating Pakistan internationally. However, in the past few years Pakistan has gained favours with some of the big international players like the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia and Russia etc. U.S. and China have backed Islamabad to deliver on peace in Afghanistan through what is called the Quadrilateral Cooperation Group. The U.S. is going to start supplying a new instalment of military aid to Pakistan including F16 fighter jets while China has stepped up its economic relations through the new China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.  Also, China’s recent veto in UN to India’s demand to declare Jaish E Mohammad (Pakistan backed terrorist outfit) shows the strength of Sino-Pak relationship. To add to India’s worries now Russia is warming up to Islamabad and has lifted a long time arms embargo on Pakistan as well (Joshi, 2016). While traditionally Saudi Arabia like China has been a staunch supporter of Pakistan and this has reflected in two major incidents recently. First, with the visit of Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud in early 2016, the Pakistani Army saw an opportunity to build personal ties when recently it sent few retired officers to advice Saudi against its war in Yemen (Sood, 2016). Second incident was Indian Prime Ministers recent visit to Saudi Arabia to build stronger ties in matters of security, defence and economic cooperation. Saudi Arabia had condemned any type of terrorist activity then only to follow it up with declaration of support for Pakistan on Kashmir’s Right to Self-Determination at the OIC Summit in Turkey (The Telegraph, April 2016). All in all, instead of isolating Pakistan, India seems to be losing its hold with these actors which is affecting its own policies in the region as well.

Pakistan’s internal situation

In looking at India Pakistan relations one has to consider the internal events and situation in Pakistan as without this one is unable to understand the dynamics of this relations. Firstly, even though it is a widely circulated believe that Pakistan is imploding, one has to acknowledge that with all its turbulences Pakistan manages to survive.  However, there are few events of 2016 that need mention to know what is happening in Pakistan and their implications.

The first incident that needs mention is the suicide attack in Lahore on a Easter Sunday when Christian Families had gathered to celebrate the day. This has affected the delicate civil-military relation in Pakistan that had been achieved after much fiasco in 2014 with the Azadi March. (Sumra, 2014) This was followed by a huge protest outside the Parliament in Islamabad by the supporters of hanged assassin Mumtaz Qadri, the man who had killed late Punjab Governor Salman Taseer in 2011 after he had supported a campaign against Pakistan’s strict Blasphemy Law. These protestors demanded an imposition of Sharia Law in the country and grant Qadri the status of a National hero.

Additional to this, the recent report mentioned earlier on Pakistani textbooks back by the U.S. has noted that the textbooks negatively portray religious minorities and also has open disregard for the history of subcontinent (Lascar, 2016). The books seem to teach a version of history that suits the interest of a specific group that unfortunately sees a more radicalised Islamic Pakistan with Sharia as its constitution rather than a democracy.  Couple all these events with the ongoing operation in the country against the Taliban and allegations of widespread corruption against the prime minister and his family, Pakistan is indeed resting on a razors edge. 

Drawing from all this firstly, what is alarming is the vast flow of support for people like Qadri and the radical clergy who are rabidly anti-West and anti-India. The government has been struggling to reign them in but any respite seem to be lost. The legacy that former President Zia U Haq has left is slowly eating the country away. While, the liberal and the educated class is struggling to keep up the democratic face of Pakistan. However, they are also limited in their efforts because within Pakistan and outside a politically correct stance has to be maintained. Otherwise, Army and the intelligence agency ISI will put them on a tight leash.

Secondly, the strength and hold of Pakistan Army even over the civilian government has proved fatal and continues to be dangerous for the country and the others as well. From supporting the Taliban in the country and next door in Afghanistan to tacit support to militants in Kashmir, the army has time and again proved that its position is in-disposable when it comes to running the country and its Foreign policy. In recent times it has expressed its displeasure over Nawaz Sharif’s friendly overtures towards India especially to host PM Modi at South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit to be held later this year in Pakistan and his cooperation in the Pathankot investigations. 

Finally, Pakistan’s denial to reign in these terror groups and talk terrorism with India and preconditions of including Kashmir is a signal that nothing is changing in Pakistan for a long time including its policy with India.

Kashmir and its fragility at present

One factor that needs to be mentioned here to provide a comprehensive picture of India Pakistan relations is Kashmir. It is not to talk about the conflict aspect of it but the internal developments in Kashmir recently that could have an effect on how things pan out. The state has been virtually under Governor Rule since January when the appointed chief Minister Mufti Syed passed away. Its only recently that his daughter Mehbooba Mufti was appointed r as the first woman Chief Minister of the state. However, her credibility has already diminished after dilly dallying over government formation and then forging coalition with the centre ruled BJP government. BJP has traditionally been seen a radical force in Kashmir who is set to erode all the autonomy and special status that has been accorded to the state under Indian Constitution and a rabid anti-Muslim party as well. Soon after her presiding over, Kashmir has seen violence and bloodshed again  with civilians being killed by the armed forces. Any kind of unrest, especially involving the armed forces and human rights violations, rings an alarm in Pakistan who then doesn’t leave any opportunity to highlight such incidents in International forum citing Indian complacency over Kashmir and that how Kashmir has to be a core issue between the two countries for talks to go ahead. It indeed is true that the bloodbath and human rights violation in Kashmir has alienated the Kashmiri population (HRW report, 2006). Even while being aware of instability within Pakistan, Kashmiris see Pakistan as a supporter of their self-determination movement and a friend. That apart, the rise of nationalist Hindutva forces within India in recent times is further pushing Kashmir away with its anti-Muslim stance and jingoism. Already mentioned above that Pakistan is slowly regaining its support with the big actors, and, in this scenario India has to be careful with how it deals with Kashmir.

Conclusion

In conclusion, taking into account the factors discussed one can be state that India Pakistan relations are headed for a stagnation again. A lack of structured policy on India’s part especially for Pakistan and the lackadaisical approach of Pakistan it is absolute that South Asia region is headed for a long reign of stalemate. The ability to be dynamic and overlook the issues to initiate a dialogue that leadership seem to be lacking from both sides. In such a circumstance one can only recommend policies in the hope that they will be implemented soon.

Policy Recommendations

1. Either country has to make the first step to engage in a composite dialogue rather than waiting for the other to do so
2. Any pre conditions from either country has to be avoided because it leads to stagnation and dilly dallying of moving forward
3. India specially needs to work out a robust Foreign Policy framework to be able to deal with extraneous situation in its neighbourhood
4. All outstanding issues like Kashmir, Terrorism, Bilateral Trade, Sir Creek etc. will need to be dealt in an ad hoc manner
5. Both countries need to deal with their domestic situation effectively so that it does not trickle down to their Foreign Policy