After the July 14th attack in Nice – European security debate to gain momentum

After the truck attack in the southern French city of Nice where at least 84 people were killed, the security debate will most likely shape the next presidential elections. Beyond France on European Union level, military cooperation and Junker’s proposal of a security union will be on top of the next political discussions. 

Nice attack will shape next presidential campaign

France was hit just by another attack on the 14^th of July after a 31 years old Franco-Tunisian man killed at least 84 people with a truck which he directed into a crowd at the Promenade des Anglais in Nice. According to French authorities, the suspect is known for petty crimes but he has not been identified for terrorist activities, nor was he known or suspected by intelligence services. In the aftermath of the attack, French president Francois Hollande stated that the state of emergency will be extended by another three months. Furthermore, he announced border controls to be tightened and French military actions in Syria and Iraq to be reinforced (Mestre, d’Allonnes, Bissuel, 2016). The Nice attack is the latest in a series of deadly attacks which took place in France over the last one and a half years. These events will shape the upcoming presidential campaign and intensify the political debate in the European Union.

The first round in the presidential elections will take place in April 2017, just nine months from now. Most probably the campaign will be shaped by the attacks in Nice and in Paris against Charlie Hebdo and the November attacks in the center of Paris. Therefore, internal security will play a major role in the forthcoming presidential runoff – especially with regards to terrorism abroad and at home in France. Traditionally, security is a key competence for the center right Republican Party. Also the far right wing party Front National, with a strong anti-Muslim stance, will most likely capitalize on recent events. Both parties are likely to accuse the current Socialist government under Hollande of having failed to protect France from these attacks.

Beyond France, the debate will be sparked by the meddling of terrorism and immigration, in particular by nationalist parties across the European Union.

The Schengen Agreement which abandoned most border controls across Western Europe has been in the focus of the Republicans. The party put forward reforms to the agreement which promise to give the French more control over their borders (Hirst, 2014). Due to the fact that the Paris attacks had been partly planned in Belgium and the free movement enabled terrorists to travel smoothly between those countries will reiterate Republican demands to push forward those reforms. Beyond France, the debate will be sparked by the meddling of terrorism and immigration, in particular by nationalist parties across the European Union.

Towards a security union?

On the EU level security cooperation and the enhancing of the European military will be a priority in discussions and political debates. Recently, Berlin and Paris have begun on proposals which improve the EU’s external borders and increasing security cooperation (De Hoop Scheffer, Schwarzer, 2015). With the economic integration in the Eurozone being in troubled waters, the focus on security cooperation will be likely to shift to the capitals’ attention and being more enhanced after the Nice attack.

Secondly, Germany has pledged to increase military cooperation, thus contributing to what will result ideally in a security union as announced by Commission president Jean-Claude Junker (Alvarez, 2016). Germany’s defense ministry announced that military spending will increase for the next decade in addition to adopting a more active role for missions abroad. However, the creation will face obstacles considering that member states are still reluctant to share intelligence information and capitals are cautious of very step which could limit national sovereignty on national security. However, after Nice Junker’s proposal for a security union will gain prominence though face slow progress given presidential elections in France and general elections in Germany next year.

Frank Lunemann is a Junior fellow at the CGSRS | Centre for Geopolitics & Security in Realism Studies. He may be contacted at frank.lunemann@cgsrs.org.

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